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Haiti v Scotland
M@f.MatchNumber · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta
FT
SCORELINE PROBABILITY — 7×7
0123456
0
8
14
14
9
4
2
1
1
5
10
9
6
3
1
2
2
3
3
2
1
3
1
1
4
5
6
HOME GOALS ↓ · AWAY GOALS → · gold ring = actual · green ring = modal score
WIN / DRAW / WINmodel vs de-vigged market
HAI WIN
edge -1.7
MODEL
12%
MKT
14%
DRAW
edge +0.9
MODEL
22%
MKT
21%
SCO WIN
edge +0.9
MODEL
66%
MKT
66%
CONTEXT FLAGS
STAGE
GROUP C
VENUE
Atlanta
ALTITUDE
320 M
CLIMATE
INDOOR
REST
+1D HOME
ACTIVE SIGNALSadjustments with provenance
no active signals for this fixture
ODDS MOVEMENT — HOME WIN %pre-kickoff snapshots
model
market (de-vig)
POST-MATCH — ACTUAL VS PREDICTED
HIT
HAI 0–3 SCO
exact score carried 8.8% pre-match
Result matched the model's favoured outcome; expected-goals read was on the money.