SAT JUN 20
Spain and Argentina close out their groups; Morocco's draw with Brazil is the model's edge of the day.
0:00 / 4:38
elevenlabs · briefs/2026-06-20.mp3 · s3
RESULTS VS MODEL
The model's clearest edges of the matchday tracked the result; favourites at altitude held serve and the headline upset flag landed.
NEXT 24 HOURS
Third-matchday fixtures dominate the read, with rotation risk on the already-qualified sides.
SIGNALS DIGEST
Adjustments applied overnight are each traceable to a tier-1 source; low-confidence items queue as pending below the 0.60 gate.
CALIBRATION
Rolling 7-day Brier sits at .182 for the model against .195 for the de-vigged market.
PROBABILITY MOVERS — #10 VS #9
CAN
CHAMPION
-0.2% →
0.3%
+0.5
SUI
CHAMPION
1.2% →
0.7%
-0.5
TUR
CHAMPION
0.6% →
1.1%
+0.5
CIV
CHAMPION
0.5% →
0.0%
-0.5
IRN
CHAMPION
-0.5% →
0.0%
+0.5
CPV
CHAMPION
0.5% →
0.0%
-0.5
DAILY PIPELINE — 17:00 AESTall stages ok
SYNC
results + fixture updates
0.8s
ELO
ratings updated from new results
0.2s
SEARCH
Brave: 14 teams playing ≤72h
11.4s
TRIAGE
Haiku filtered 132 → 18 articles
$0.004
EXTRACT
Sonnet → 4 SignalEvents
$0.071
RULES
2 auto-applied · 1 pending
0.1s
SIMULATE
100k Monte Carlo, seed 20260620
8.6s
NARRATE
Sonnet → brief markdown
$0.102
SPEAK
ElevenLabs → mp3 → S3
4.6s
PUBLISH
brief live · RSS updated
0.1s
bedrock spend today $0.18 · tournament to date $3.41