Daily Brief /brief
as of FRI JUN 12 · 09:12 ET #147
SAT JUN 20 RSS · PRIVATE FEED narrates run #10
SAT JUN 20
Spain and Argentina close out their groups; Morocco's draw with Brazil is the model's edge of the day.
0:00 / 4:38 elevenlabs · briefs/2026-06-20.mp3 · s3
RESULTS VS MODEL
The model's clearest edges of the matchday tracked the result; favourites at altitude held serve and the headline upset flag landed.
NEXT 24 HOURS
Third-matchday fixtures dominate the read, with rotation risk on the already-qualified sides.
SIGNALS DIGEST
Adjustments applied overnight are each traceable to a tier-1 source; low-confidence items queue as pending below the 0.60 gate.
CALIBRATION
Rolling 7-day Brier sits at .182 for the model against .195 for the de-vigged market.
PROBABILITY MOVERS — #10 VS #9
CAN CHAMPION favourable results elsewhere -0.2% → 0.3% +0.5
SUI CHAMPION signal applied · strength downgraded 1.2% → 0.7% -0.5
TUR CHAMPION favourable results elsewhere 0.6% → 1.1% +0.5
CIV CHAMPION signal applied · strength downgraded 0.5% → 0.0% -0.5
IRN CHAMPION favourable results elsewhere -0.5% → 0.0% +0.5
CPV CHAMPION signal applied · strength downgraded 0.5% → 0.0% -0.5
DAILY PIPELINE — 17:00 AESTall stages ok
SYNC results + fixture updates 0.8s
ELO ratings updated from new results 0.2s
SEARCH Brave: 14 teams playing ≤72h 11.4s
TRIAGE Haiku filtered 132 → 18 articles $0.004
EXTRACT Sonnet → 4 SignalEvents $0.071
RULES 2 auto-applied · 1 pending 0.1s
SIMULATE 100k Monte Carlo, seed 20260620 8.6s
NARRATE Sonnet → brief markdown $0.102
SPEAK ElevenLabs → mp3 → S3 4.6s
PUBLISH brief live · RSS updated 0.1s
bedrock spend today $0.18 · tournament to date $3.41
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