SIMULATION
Iterations
50k
Seed
local runs land with TRACK-005; controls are live, execution is disabled
PARAMETER OVERRIDESwhat-if · applies to next local run
Host advantage
+0.18 λ home · MEX/USA/CAN
Altitude model
CDMX 2,240m · GDL 1,551m
Fatigue coefficient
0.042
Market blend weight
0.35
COMPARE RUNS — CHAMPION %A = current · B = sample pre-news variant
ESP
25.5
25.1
+0.4
ARG
21.3
21.1
+0.2
FRA
12.1
12.9
-0.8
ENG
10.8
10.8
·
BRA
6.7
6.9
-0.2
POR
4.5
5.5
-1.0
NED
3.0
2.4
+0.6
COL
1.9
2.7
-0.8
CALIBRATION DEEP-DIVE — RELIABILITYBrier 0.143 vs market 0.145
model · Brier 0.143 · logloss 0.767
market · Brier 0.145 · logloss 0.772
Scored over 48 settled matches. Model is beating the de-vigged market on RPS. Multiclass Brier: model 0.456 vs market 0.459.