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as of FRI JUN 12 · 09:12 ET
#147
A · COMMAND
B
C
CHAMPION PROBABILITY — TOP 12
Δ vs run #146
1
ESP
Spain
25.5
+0.2
2
ARG
Argentina
21.3
+0.1
3
FRA
France
12.1
-0.4
4
ENG
England
10.8
·
5
BRA
Brazil
6.7
-0.1
6
POR
Portugal
4.5
-0.5
7
NED
Netherlands
3.0
+0.3
8
COL
Colombia
1.9
-0.4
9
GER
Germany
1.8
-0.2
10
ECU
Ecuador
1.6
-0.1
11
BEL
Belgium
1.6
-0.3
12
NOR
Norway
1.4
-0.3
TODAY'S BRIEF — SAT JUN 20
FULL BRIEF →
Spain and Argentina close out their groups; Morocco's draw with Brazil is the model's edge of the day.
0:00 / 4:38
elevenlabs · rss
+0.5
CAN champion favourable results elsewhere
-0.5
SUI champion signal applied · strength downgraded
+0.5
TUR champion favourable results elsewhere
NEXT 48H — FIXTURES
model W/D/W
M49 · GRP ATHU · 15:00 ET
Czech Republic
v
Mexico
MetLife Stadium · New York/New Jersey
18%26%56%
M50 · GRP AFRI · 18:00 ET
South Africa
v
South Korea
SoFi Stadium · Los Angeles
7%17%76%
M51 · GRP BWATCHSAT · 12:00 ET
Switzerland
v
Canada
AT&T Stadium · Dallas
43%29%28%
M52 · GRP BWED · 15:00 ET
Bosnia & Herzegovina
v
Qatar
Levi's Stadium · San Francisco Bay
49%28%23%
M53 · GRP CTHU · 18:00 ET
Scotland
v
Brazil
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami
10%20%70%
M54 · GRP CFRI · 12:00 ET
Morocco
v
Haiti
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta
82%13%5%
WATCHLIST — TOP FLAGS
edge vs de-vigged close
PAR v AUS · PAR WIN
WED · 18:00 ET
+3.0
model edge on par win vs the de-vigged close · model/market disagreement
SUI v CAN · SUI WIN
SAT · 12:00 ET
+2.9
model edge on sui win vs the de-vigged close · elo gap +56
SEN v IRQ · SEN WIN
FRI · 12:00 ET
+2.7
model edge on sen win vs the de-vigged close · elo gap +176
CALIBRATION — ROLLING BRIER
7-day window
model .143
market .145
+0.1 pts edge